Space Weather Highlights 07 January - 13 January 2013
Space Weather Outlook 14 January - 09 February 2013
Space Weather Highlights 07 January - 13 January 2013
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 07-10 January and
again on 12 January. Moderate levels were observed on 11 and 13 January. At the beginning of
the period, there were 12 numbered regions on the visible disk. Most of the regions were
relatively stable producing low level C-class flares. The most magnetically complex spot group
was Region 1652 (N17, L=184, class/area Fkc/320 on 07 January); a Fkc/BG spot group. By
early 08 January, Region 1654 (N08, L=151, class/area Fki/1100 on 11 January) rotated around
the NE limb. Both Regions 1652 and 1654 were responsible for the majority of the C-class
activity that occurred through the rest of the period. By 11 January, moderate levels were
reached as Region 1654 produced two M-class flares; an M1 at 11/0911 UTC with associated
Type II (537 km/s) and Type IV radio bursts and an M1/1f at 11/1507 UTC. Other activity on 11
January included a 174 sfu Tenflare associated with a C1 flare from Region 1654 at 11/1846
UTC. Low levels returned on 12 January. By 13 January, moderate levels returned as Region
1652 produced two M-class flares; an M1 at 13/0050 UTC and another M1 at 13/0838 UTC with
associated Type II (649 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as an Earth-directed CME. First
seen in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 13/0909 UTC (estimated speed of 371 km/s), the ejecta
appeared in SOHO/LASCO imagery as a faint halo beginning at 13/1236 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet for the majority of the period through late on 13 January.
The solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged from 272 km/s to 375 km/s while
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
By late on 10 January, the phi angle changed from predominantly negative (towards) to positive
(away) indicative of a solar sector boundary crossing. By mid day on 13 January, solar wind
speed began to increase from approximately 400 km/s to 510 km/s. An increase in temperature
and total field strength (10 nT) was observed as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. Unsettled periods were observed from 13/1800-2400 UTC.
Space Weather Outlook 14 January - 09 February 2013
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels until Region 1654 rotates around the
west limb on 20 January. Very low to low levels are expected until Regions 1652 and 1654
return beginning on 31 January. A chance for M-class flares exists from 31 January through the
end of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels throughout the forecast period with possible high levels on 15-16 January and
again on 19-20 January due to coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to active on 14 January due to continued
coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet levels are expected through mid-day on 17 January.
By mid to late 17 January, a CME is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active
periods through 18 January. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels by 19 January and
continue until 09 February when a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to return.
Quelle: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html
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