Highlights
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- HANDY is a 4-variable thought-experiment model for interaction of humans and nature.
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- The focus is on predicting long-term behavior rather than short-term forecasting.
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- Carrying Capacity is developed as a practical measure for forecasting collapses.
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- A sustainable steady state is shown to be possible in different types of societies.
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- But over-exploitation of either Labor or Nature results in a societal collapse.
Abstract
There
are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are
unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain
controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently in history, often
followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline.
Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to
explain specific collapses, but a general explanation remains elusive.
In
this paper, we build a human population dynamics model
by adding
accumulated wealth and economic inequality to a predator–prey model of
humans and nature. The model structure, and simulated scenarios that
offer significant implications, are explained. Four equations describe
the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The model shows
Economic Stratification or Ecological Strain can independently lead to
collapse, in agreement with the historical record.
The
measure “Carrying Capacity” is developed and its estimation is shown to
be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms
leading to two types of collapses are discussed. The new dynamics of
this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses found in
history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady
state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is
reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed
equitably. Quelle und weiterlesen HIER
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Vielen Dank für Ihren Beitrag. Die Freischaltung zu älteren Beiträgen kann gelegentlich eine Weile dauern. Ich behalte mir vor, Kommentare ohne Angabe von Gründen nicht zu veröffentlichen oder wieder zu löschen wenn diese Beleidigungen oder Diffamierungen, rechts- oder sonstwelchen radikalen Inhalt oder Verlinkungen dorthin beinhalten oder einfach überhaupt nicht zum Thema des Beitrages passen.
Danke für Ihr Verständnis. Ihr Mr. Flare